Derby preview

When our semi-final was postponed I was pleased. I thought that it would work in our favour. Twelve days later I'm not so sure. I had a few reasons for thinking this. First was the benefit of Mancini spending more time working with the players, assessing them, teaching them how he wants them to play. While I'm sure that's gone on behind the scenes, and we certainly played well against Blackburn, the defeat at Goodison Park destroyed all the momentum we had built up in those opening four wins. Moreover, I'm not sure our playing options are as good now as they were before. Santa Cruz has come back from injury but broken down again, Stephen Ireland is not yet fully fit - and nor is Patrick Vieira. Carlos Tévez and Martin Petrov both picked up knocks at Everton and Craig Bellamy is starting to look tired. United, on the other hand, are starting to get key players back. And there are rumours that Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic might both start tomorrow.

Point two was that I wanted someone else to take the blacklash from United's FA Cup exit to Leeds. A draw at Birmingham City only prolonged and fed United's frustration and while they were comprehensive against Burnley on Saturday it wasn't exactly brutal. Taking Rooney and Berbatov off on seventy minutes was a sign that there is still some payback to come, being saved up for us.

So I'm feeling less optimistic than I was two weeks ago. And back then I was terrified. The fact that everyone knows is that this is our first semi-final since 1981. Half of our first team weren't even born then. And it's against Manchester United, our biggest rivals. This is their seventh semi-final since 2006/07, their twentieth in the last nineteen years. If it didn't need saying, they've won the last three Premier League titles - they're really rather good.

It's hard enough playing your local rivals in your first semi-final in years when they're the best team of the modern era. But it's even harder when this is our manager's sixth game in charge of the club! This is a whole new ingredient to what is already a difficult and fascinating tie. The record under Mancini is mixed - four good wins against bad teams before one dismal defeat at Everton. As with most things, there are precedents supporting both options.

One strong argument against our success is the side we'll put out. With injuries to key players our team basically picks itself. Tévez will play behind Benjani up front, while Shaun Wright-Phillips should return to the right-hand side of midfield given Martin Petrov's injury. It's not a terrible team, but how many of those players would we rest if this was not a semi-final? Gareth Barry and Craig Bellamy, certainly. Nigel de Jong, too, probably. Tévez looked to pick up a knock on Saturday but must play. Who knows what we'll do at Scunthorpe on Sunday? Anyway, this is my guess:

This has all been a very long way of saying I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow but I think that we'll lose. I just don't know what else to expect. We don't have form, fitness, experience or ruthlesness on our side. We are a side emerging from too many changes in recent years, not far enough down the road of progress to expect to succeed this time. Maybe with everyone fit, with a bedded-in manager, with easier opposition I might back us to make a final. But not enough pieces are in place yet. I'm predicting 2-0 to United.