Arsenal preview

For all the frustration with our run of draws, it's easy to think that our league campaign is over. It isn't. We're three points off fourth place. Everyone can calm down in the knowledge that we have twenty five Premier League games remaining to re-assert ourselves. Tonight, though, is quite different: a few hours from now we will either be in our first semi-final since 1981, or will have lost our fourth quarter final in five seasons.

It's a fairly important game. The more so, because with our run of seven consecutive league draws, the judgement made on Mark Hughes by the fans, the press and the board has been in suspense for some time. While a win tonight would win him a quite significant amount of credit, a defeat would have a serious and destabilising impact. We are not yet near a tipping-point (these things always take longer than people envisage), but defeats this evening and on Saturday - with difficult trips to the Reebok and White Hart Lane to come - could lead to a festive period as uncomfortable as last year's was.

Regarding the game itself, there's no doubting who should win. We've already comfortably beaten Arsenal's first team at home this season - putting a total of seven goals past them the last two times they've come to Eastlands. And tonight is not Arsenal's first team. Of those that started the 4-2, only Alex Song has travelled. Of those that came on in that game, Tomáš Rosický and Emmanuel Eboué are also in the squad tonight. But then it's Carlos Vela and Mikaël Silvestre at the well known end, with Kyle Bartley, Craig Eastmond and Emmanuel Frimpong at the other extreme.

I don't know exactly what the City side will be tonight. There are rumours of a place for Sylvinho, an injury to Gareth Barry and even a rare start for Nedum Onuoha. But I am sure that it will be better on paper than Arsenal. Whether we can convert that difference on the pitch, I'm not so sure. People say that Arsenal have a bad record in knock-out competitions recently, and, by their standards, they do. But if there's one thing lodged in City's DNA it is the ability to freeze in what ought to be negotiable quarter-final ties. And if the last two months have taught us anything, it is that Mark Hughes and Garry Cook still have some way to go before they can be said to have slain 'typical City.'