Aston Villa preview

I can't be as excited for tomorrow's game as I was this time last year. Yes, we have a new manager, new signings (although not on the scale of 2007), and hopefully an improvement on the previous season's low-scoring, tumultuous and ultimately dissapointing fare. But after the last fourteen months, we are no longer innocent to the compromises we have to make with Shinawatra's narcissism in return for his cash. We know about the casual undermining of Eriksson, as much cause as consequence of our 2008 decline. We know that we have moved ourselves into a cash crisis that led to the board trying to sell two of our best young players behind the manager's back.

There are certainly reasons to be optimistic. All of the good players of Autumn 2007 are still here, tougher and fitter than ever before. The Academy products have the benefit of more first team football. Danny Sturridge, Ched Evans, Kelvin Etuhu and Vladimir Weiss will all play bigger roles this season than last. Valeri Bozhinov is akin to a new buy, whilst Jô and Tal Ben Haim are exactly that. I think we'll have a season similar to 2007/08. Finishing between 8th and 11th, winning between 50 and 60 points. But that feeling I had at the Boleyn Ground cannot be replicated easily.

Apart from anything else, I think we're going to lose. I don't think we'll finish too far away from Aston Villa this season, but I'm sure they'll have too much for us tomorrow. Coming off a big win on Thursday night, and still in possession of their captain, they ought to be full of confidence at the moment. And with Ashley Young, John Carew and Gabriel Agbonlahor, I think they'll have too much for us going forward. Their one possible weak point is that their defence do not have much experience playing together. They've lost Olof Mellberg to Juventus and Wilfred Bouma to injury, buying in Luke Young, Nicky Shorey and Carlos Cuellar. Those three are all good players (like Martin Laursen and Curtis Davies, unlike Zat Knight). But in their first league game at Villa, a dynamic front line could unsettle them.

Unfortunately, City have little option but to play 4-5-1. Both the match situation and our available personnel dictate it. At home, against FC Midtjylland, the Gelson/Johnson midfield axis was exposed. It needs reinforcing. I'd like to see Didi Hamann given a game, but he is surely a casualty to Hughes' fitness regime. Steven Ireland would be my choice to drop into the middle. Our lack of fit forwards also militates toward 4-5-1. If we had Bozhinov, Jô, Benjani et al to pick from, 4-4-2 could be a good idea. But 4-4-2 for its own sake is not good. If one of those forwards is to be Caicedo, it is safer to go with the extra man in midfield. Providing Evans is still out, the choice is between Sturridge and Bozhinov. My choice would be for Valeri, because he's, you know, better. But expect to see Sturridge brought off the bench at half time when we're 2-0 down.

The rest of the team is easy. Hart will go in goal. No Dunne means Corluka at right back, with Richards and Ben Haim in the middle. I no longer have a preference between Ball and Garrido on the left.

Someone just wrote on mancityfans.net that we'd be wearing the orange third kit tomorrow. So I'll take my camera and put some photos up on here, along with a report and player ratings some time Sunday night.