Summer clear out?

Sven suggested this weekend that there might be a clear out this summer. But who's for the chop? A lot of this is naturally tied up with transfer policy, but there are some interesting issues to be unpacked.

Goalkeepers

At the start of the season there was an open competition for goalkeepers: Hart, if anything, seemed our third in line. He is now as sure of his place as anyone. Schmeichel's made some noises about leaving in the summer: presumably he'll go, as may Isaksson. I imagine if they both went we'd bring in someone new. The issue, however, is finding someone talented, experienced, and willing to be understudy to a twenty year old.

Defenders

We only have three defenders who will certainly be here next season: Richards, Dunne and Corluka. None out of Garrido, Ball, Onuoha or Sun have been wholly convincing. We won't get rid of all four of them, but I wouldn't be surprised if one or two left. Sun Jihai is presumably the most likely (will commercial considerations impact this at all?) - he's simply not up to it. Of the left backs, we won't lose both of them but I don't think either of them has staked an impregnable claim to the spot this year (I narrowly prefer Garrido) so a departure is possible. Sven seems to rate Onuoha higher than I do: against Birmingham he achieved the unique feat of being at fault twice for the same goal (missing both the initial header and then the tackle for Zarate's second). I think age may count in his favour. But if SGE can pick up some foreign bargains a departure or two are quite possible, and in Sun's case, likely.

Midfielders

Didi Hamann, Gelson Fernandes and Michael Johnson have all assured their places for next season. The real issue is with our surfeit of players who play in the wide positions or in the hole. Of those, I think that Martin Petrov is the only one not playing for his future. Geovanni, Ireland, Castillo, Elano and Vassell are competing for probably three places (if, as rumoured, we buy a right footed Petrov equivalent). Elano would need a very big offer from abroad to tempt him away: it would take a very poor last six games and an eight figure bid to take him away. The most likely to leave is Geovanni: only on a one year deal, involved against Birmingham for the first time in eight weeks. With his limited chances, how likely is he to earn a new deal? Sven doesn't seem like a big fan so will probably let him go. So that leaves Vassell, Castillo and Ireland. None convincing on the right, Ireland occassionally in the middle. Castillo is different: he's on loan until January 2009 so the issue is what to do then, and therefore any decision is necessarily postponed until then. Ireland and Vassell are both players more popular with Sven than with City fans in general. But if one goes it should be Vass, unless performances in the last six games prove otherwise.

Forwards

The only one guaranteed to stay is the one who's played the least - whilst Benjani, Mpenza and Vassell (plus the four loanees) have to varying degrees played their way out of favour, Bozhinov has been on the sidelines. He deserves another try next year, and will get it. None of the others are safe. We will certainly buy one striker, maybe even two. Combined with the returns of Evans and continued presence of Sturridge, we shouldn't be surprised by a ruthless cull of the rest. None of Benjani, Bianchi, Corradi, Dickov, Mpenza, Samaras or Vassell has a good enough scoring record to demand a place in the 2008/09 squad. Benjani is the most likely to stay, by virtue of his recent acquisition if nothing else (I hope he doesn't play the 75 matches needed to activate the other £3.87m, and not just for financial reasons). But only goals can save him and Vassell. Mpenza may not even get the chance.

We're playing like we either don't realise how tight the Inter-Toto race is, or have presumed that Fair Play qualification is a fait accompli. The fact that half of our squad are playing for their futures will hopefully spur them on to something a bit more acceptable for the last six games.