Today was a good day

I was hoping this morning that we could keep pace with Aston Villa. I envisaged falling two points further behind them. Instead, we have gained ground - and are now seperated only on goal difference. Although Blackburn gained two points on us, the fact remains we are more likely to get the Inter-Toto Cup place than we were at 3 o'clock today.

Today's result was entirely in keeping with how we've done away at other poor sides. Obviously we'd want to be doing better than 1-1 at Derby and Wigan, 3-3 at Fulham and 0-0 at Bolton, but this is a problem we've had all year - and not some recent or sudden failure. That said, we could really do with a few goals at St. Andrews next Saturday.

So, even disregarding Fair Play, European football is within our grasp. Thanks to Portsmouth's failure to apply for the Inter Toto cup, and Everton's hopefully impregnable lead over Pompey, all we have to do is get more points than both Villa and Blackburn over the final seven matches (we could do Blackburn on goal difference if we get some big wins but I don't think it will come to that).

Here are the three run ins:

City: Birmingham (A), Chelsea (H), Sunderland (A), Portsmouth (H), Fulham (H), Liverpool (A), Middlesbrough (A)

Villa: Man Utd (A), Bolton (H), Derby (A), Birmingham (H), Everton (A), Wigan (H), West Ham (A)

Blackburn: Reading (A), Tottenham (H), Liverpool (A), Man Utd (H), Portsmouth (A), Derby (H), Birmingham (A)

Blackburn's run in is strikingly difficult - I imagine they would get 10 or 11 points maximum out of it - with two difficult trips to teams battling for survival.

Aston Villa seem to have the easiest. They have four games they'll see as secure three points, but they're currently in a poor run of form. A heavy defeat against United could set them back a bit further, but I'd still back them for twelve points, with the possibility of as many as fourteen or even fifteen.

Given Villa's superior goal difference - could we overcome that much of a (theoretical) deficit to get European football? It's a big ask. Fulham is the only obvious easy win. Apart from that, we've got three trips to teams fighting relegation - matches in which, as described above, our record is poor. Nine points is unlikely - to be honest I'd probably take five and certainly six. At Anfield we can only hope that their possible Champions' League semi-final three days before has taken it out of them and we get to play a team of Kuyts, Pennants and Benayouns. Even then I wouldn't back us. It's all going to come down to the home games against Chelsea and Portsmouth. Three points is a necessary minimum, and four may not even be enough.

So despite today's progress, we're relying on a continuing Villa decline and a few surprise wins for City if we want Inter Toto cup football. Failing that, don't get booked and respect the referee!