Bolton preview

The failure to take more points from trips to poor teams has been our principal weakness this season. Two points rather than twelve from trips to Derby, Fulham, Wigan and Reading is not good enough. We can catch Aston Villa, but only if we take maximum points from games at Bolton, Birmingham, Sunderland and Middlesbrough. The win against Tottenham had the feel of pressing the reset button on our season– removing months of stagnation and setting up an eight game charge at European football. Three points on Saturday gives our first back to back wins for five months. Anticipation for Bolton has been running through me for days. I haven’t been this excited about a City match since the Derby – and that was for very different reasons.

However, lowering expectations as a pre-emptive defence mechanism remains natural to City fans – even those, like me, whose memory only stretches as far back as Brian Horton and Paul Walsh. I know that ‘potential banana skin’ is a cliché –but this will not be an easy game. That does not mean that Bolton Wanderers are a good team. Like East Germany, they’ve traded a despicable but functioning system for an ugly and useless one. But they are kicking, chasing and elbowing for their lives at the moment – and it will not be an easy afternoon.

Our style works best against those teams who play football against us: Manchester United and Spurs both gave us space to counter attack into; a luxury not provided by those who ‘park the bus’ in front of their goal. Recent failures to break down Reading, Wigan and Everton have cost us dearly. We can pass the ball all afternoon in the opposition’s half, without necessarily threatening their goal. I don’t know enough about football to know how best to combat this: with the pace of Castillo and Petrov, the possession play of Elano and Ireland, or the work rate and physicality of Vassell and Caicedo?

Presuming we keep the same back five from Sunday, Johnson and Fernandes in the middle and Benjani (hamstring permitting) upfront, we have three positions left to fill. SGE’s comments today suggest Petrov starts – in Elano’s left wing forward role. And two assists against Tottenham ought to guarantee the Brazilian’s place, albeit in a different role. Where exactly he plays depends on the choice between Castillo, Ireland and Vassell. If Castillo sufficiently impressed to keep his place, Elano would start in his old role of attacking central midfield. If Ireland’s uncharacteristic tenacity guarantees the same spot this week, Elano could replace Castillo on the right hand side. And if Sven goes for Vassell’s work rate on the right wing Elano moves back into the middle.

Whichever line up Sven chooses, we will have superior quality to Bolton. The challenge will be in converting this into goals; something we have not always achieved this season.