Sunday, 7 September 2008

KotK prediction competition 2

1) Final League Position Sixth

2) Number of Points 60

3) Number of League Wins 16

4) Number of League Draws 12

5) Number of League Losses 10

6) League Goals For 55

7) League Goals Against 50

8) Goal Difference +5

9) Carling Cup Round Reached QF

10) FA Cup Round Reached Win

11) Top Scorer

12) His Total scored in all competitions 11

13) Average league home attendance 48,000

14) Average league away attendance 35,000

15) After how many games will we reach 40 points 28

16) After how many games will we reach 50 points 33

17) First City player to be sent off after September 15 Martin Petrov

18) First United player to be sent off after September 15 Cristiano Ronaldo

19) Will Hughes still be manager? No

20) Will Bowen still be assisstant manager? No

21) Will Thaksin still be chairman? No (although it feels cheating to answer this now)

22) City player with most appearances Joe Hart

23) FA Cup winners Manchester City

24) Carling Cup Winners Chelsea

25) Premier League champions Manchester United

26) UEFA Cup winners Tottenham Hotspur

27) Champions League winners Manchester United

28) Relegated teams from the Premiership Hull, West Brom, Bolton

29) Promoted from the Coca-Cola Championship Birmingham, Sheffield United, Crystal Palace

KotK prediction competiton

King of the Kippax's prediction competition is up and running.

The September 15th deadline means that our predictions will not be as authentic as ones written before the Aston Villa game. But the obvious upside is it slightly lessens the chance of looking stupid (I would definitely have had Bozhinov as top scorer before opening day).

Anyway, here are mine. Feel free to leave yours in the comments.

1) Final League Position Fifth

2) Number of Points 63

3) Number of League Wins 18

4) Number of League Draws 9

5) Number of League Losses 11

6) League Goals For 56

7) League Goals Against 48

8) Goal Difference +8

9) Carling Cup Round Reached Final

10) FA Cup Round Reached Semi Final

11) Top Scorer

12) His Total scored in all competitions 15

13) Average league home attendance 46,000

14) Average league away attendance 37,000

15) After how many games will we reach 40 points 23

16) After how many games will we reach 50 points 30

17) First City player to be sent off after September 15 Richard Dunne

18) First United player to be sent off after September 15 Paul Scholes

19) Will Hughes still be manager? No

20) Will Bowen still be assisstant manager? No

21) Will Thaksin still be chairman? No (although it feels cheating to answer this now)

22) City player with most appearances Vincent Kompany

23) FA Cup winners Manchester United

24) Carling Cup Winners Arsenal

25) Premier League champions Manchester United

26) UEFA Cup winners AC Milan

27) Champions League winners Chelsea

28) Relegated teams from the Premiership Stoke City, Hull, Bolton

29) Promoted from the Coca-Cola Championship Wolves, Birmingham City, Reading

My brother Tom, occassional TLDORC poster, will do his later today

Caicedo wonderstrike

57 seconds in...

Saturday, 6 September 2008

Balague on Robinho

Good article from everyone's favourite La Liga expert.

Mark Hughes's biggest challenge may present itself in learning how to play Robinho regularly, while keeping up the pressure on him and maintaining the kind competitive environment that every athlete requires if he is to keep performing at his peak. Put Robinho on a pedestal and he may repay you by acting the prima-donna.

Read it all HERE.

Friday, 5 September 2008

Team-mates

A funny video of our two latest signings, Pablo Zabaleta and Robinho, in their previous incarnations. I posted this in June when I read that one of them may end up a City player.

An unreported fact

In amongst all the takeover, Robinho and Wright-Phillips focus an important fact has been missed.

We won two consecutive league matches by three goal margins.

City hadn't won a single match by a three goal margin since February 2006 (and Joey Barton, Albert Riera and turmoil at Newcastle United were all in the news).

But two consecutive league wins by margins of at least three goals?

The 3-0 win at Barnsley on 31st October 2001, followed by the 4-1 defeat of Gillingham on 3rd November. (Dunne and Wright-Phillips started both games).

And in the top flight? August 1994.

3-0 against West Ham at Maine Road on the 24th (the second game of the season), and then 4-0 against Everton on the 27th. Of those seven goals, Rosler and Walsh scored three each, Peter Beagrie scoring the other.

On Transfer Policy, 2

Yesterday I blogged about who ought to control transfer policy. The evidence all points one way: that the manager, and no-one else, should be in charge of football matters.

But how likely are we to see this in the al-Fahim era? Will their petro-billions be spent on players that Hughes wants, or on Dr al-Fahim's superstars of choice?

As you all know, we alreay have an example of transfers under Dr al-Fahim: the signing of Robinho. The fashionable thing to do in the press is to say this was done with no input from Hughes, that it is a sign of al-Fahim's unilateralism.

In a BBC interview this week, though, Mark Bowen offered a different version of events. He said that when the news of takeover came out, him and Hughes were asked if there were players he'd like to sign; and "we did a little bit of homework, and Mark basically said that he wanted to go for Robinho if we could, amongst a few others I might add." If true, this is a positive sign.

Garry Cook, in another BBC interview, made similar comments:

Mark’s made it quite clear that he runs the football club. We’ve made it quite clear to anybody that is not inside the football club that he runs the football side of the business. And he’s anticipating nothing changing from that. He’s far more knowledgeable about football than many of us.
By far the most significant comments come from Dr al-Fahim himself. He was quoted in Manchester Evening News this week as saying:

"The coach will choose the players and we as investors will assess his choices, their abilities and their financial cost."
And Mark Hughes talked to the newspapers yesterday about the transfer issue. Ian Herbert writes in The Independent that Hughes was responsible for the list of strikers we bid for on deadline day:

Was he asked by the Arabs for help in drawing up a list? "It was something like that." Hughes adds that it is his "understanding – and it has to be – that I recommend players and they see if they can get them," but there is a sense, in the wry smile as he predicts that, "I'm sure January will be an exciting time for everyone again", that he is prepared to give reign to the owners' desires.
There are similar pieces in the Telegraph and Guardian today, carrying the same quotes and making the same points. Hughes does seem to recognise the need for some degree of compromise, an acceptance that he may not have total autonomy on transfers:

“If you understand that and you understand where the business side overlaps with the football side and you understand the owners' point of view - and equally they have to understand where you're coming from and respect you - you can avoid disruption and dispute. You have to work together"
I think this points towards the ultimate direction: a hybrid of managerial and 'trophy' signings. Hughes will submit a list of players in key positions (left back and centre forward I imagine primarily), who ADUG will bring to the club, probably for inflated fees. But if Dr al-Fahim really wants to buy Ronaldo, Figo and del Piero Hughes can't really stop him.

Thursday, 4 September 2008

On Transfer Policy, 1

Following recent events at West Ham and Newcastle, this week's central question in football is:

Who ought, in a Premier League club, to control transfer policy?

This is an area where people draw a distinction between the traditional British way of doing things: managerial control (naturally simple, clear, honest, common-sensical), posited against the European way: led by a Sporting Director/Director of Football/Technical Director/whatever (complex, inefficient, bureaucratic, shadowy, open to corruption).

And as fun as it is to mock those making that distinction in such stereotypical terms (I'm looking at you, Gerry Francis), I do think it's generally true. The two best managers of my lifetime (these two) are famous for having total control of transfer policy. Would the Glazers appoint an Executive Director (Football) to recruit players behind Ferguson's back? Would Peter Hill-Wood sell Arsenal's first choice centre and left backs to Sunderland behind Wenger's back? Would they fuck.

The lack of transfer control was one of Jose Mourinho's main complaints against Roman Abramovich. Both Frank Arnesen and Avram Grant were appointed with jurisdiction over scouting and transfer policies. Mourinho asked Abramovich for Eto'o and was rewarded with Shevchenko. At Tottenham Hotspur, it is Damien Comolli's job to buy players. On deadline day they sold Berbatov and he failed to get a replacement. This from the man who brought us Adel Taarabt and Kevin-Prince Boateng.

There are clubs who do well with transfer chiefs. All the big Italian and Spanish clubs do this, and until very recently their post-Heysel superiority in European competition was unchallenged by the English. Even worse than interfering directors of football (who tend to at least know something about the game), are interfering Presidents. The Guardian's Daniel Taylor wrote a crucial article this week, about the cautionary tale of Florentio Perez:

...an egomaniac who, in his final three years, spent €440m (£358m) on 20 players, fired six coaches and four sporting directors and won nothing - Madrid's longest run without a trophy for more than half a century.
Perez spent all his money on the most exciting attacking talent going: Michael Owen, Robinho and Julio Baptista. Out of the door went Claude Makelele, because "his technique is average, he lacks the speed and skill to take the ball past opponents, and ninety percent of his distribution either goes backwards or sideways." Taylor draws the obvious, but important, comparison between Perez and Dr Sulaiman al-Fahim.

In City's case, Dr Sulaiman Al Fahim has already spoken about trying to sign Ronaldo, Thierry Henry, David Villa, Ronaldo (the tubby Brazilian version), Mario Gómez and Fernando Torres. Revealingly, he did not mention one defender or goalkeeper and only one midfielder, Arsenal's Cesc Fábregas.
If there is a bad way to spend £500 billion on footballers, surely this is it. I don't know how much Dr al-Fahim knows about football, but I hope knows enough to be aware of Mark Hughes' record in the transfer market. This is not Kevin '£3.5m for Vuoso' Keegan, Stuart '£6m for Samaras' Pearce or even Sven-Goran '£8.8m for Bianchi' Eriksson. At Blackburn he brought in Benni McCarthy for £2.5m, Roque Santa Cruz for £3.5m and Christopher Samba for £400k.

I'll try to wait until May to pass judgement on Vincent Kompany, Tal Ben Haim, Shaun Wright-Phillips or Pablo Zabaleta, but I'm quite confident they'll be successful. Jô and Robinho are slightly different and ought not to be judged in the same way. Trusted with our new found petro-billions, I don't think Hughes will lose any of his judgement. Not only are not all players as effective as they look on YouTube (who knows whether our new Number 10 will be or not), but there can be potential downsides to stockpiling megastars. Disharmony in the camp, imbalance in the team, lack of mutual understanding, etc.

The more thought one gives this, the more obvious the conclusion is. If Dr al-Fahim wants anything approaching the success he demands for City, all transfer policy should be left with Hughes and his team.

I'll blog about how likely this is tomorrow.

(Not City related) but good nonetheless

Isn't YouTube amazing?

Wednesday, 3 September 2008

Balague on Zabaleta

A good introductory piece by Guillem Balague, an Espanyol fan.

Money quote:

His intelligence and character combine to make him a natural leader, and the kind of player that other players like to have alongside them out on the pitch: in other words, he is always reliable, always there for his team mates and, even when things aren't going well, he never goes missing and will always make himself available for the pass.

He'll provide balance and stability, particularly important when you start adding players like Robinho to the side.